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Re: risk for down syndrome From: Patrizia (pellpatri@iol.it) Tue Dec 3 06:31:19 2002 Messages sorted by: [ date ][ thread ][ subject ][ author ] Next message: art fougner, md: "Re: new case-- Joe" Previous message: DR. JOE ANTONY: "Joe- em polyp case" Next in thread: Dave Berck: "Re: risk for down syndrome" Reply: Dave Berck: "Re: risk for down syndrome" Reply: Doc Gyneco: "Re: risk for down syndrome" I tired to calculate the risk by myself but I fail could you please show me how you calculate the sequential risk in detail, using the number I gave: risk for maternal age 1:411 risk for NT - FreeBHCG - Papp-a - maternal age 1:3212 risk for tri test 1:381 thank you again patrizia >----- Original Message ----- From: "R L Meisel" <rmeisel@mac.com> To: "Multiple recipients of list ULTRASOUND" <ultrasound@mail.medispecialty.com> Sent: Saturday, November 30, 2002 2:35 AM Subject: Re: risk for down syndrome > >le 29/11/02 9:22, Patrizia : > > > >> the question is: do you know how to calculate the sequential risk? > > > >You need the likelihood ratio from NT, first trimester serum screening and > >second trimester serum screening. > > > >To respect the BAYES' rule, you have to multiply the pre test risk (1:411) > >by the 3 likelihood ratios to calculate the post-test risk. > > > > I calculated these from the given numbers in the original message and > the cumulative risk is 1/2977 > > -- > Best Wishes, > R L Meisel, MD > Next message: art fougner, md: "Re: new case-- Joe" Previous message: DR. JOE ANTONY: "Joe- em polyp case" Next in thread: Dave Berck: "Re: risk for down syndrome" Reply: Dave Berck: "Re: risk for down syndrome" Reply: Doc Gyneco: "Re: risk for down syndrome"

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