Re: 'tripple-scan' blood test

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Let me try to explain the triple screen business.

Triple test is excellent for detecting trisomy 13 and spina bifida. However, it's a pretty lousy test to detect Down's syndrome. The reason it's used so widely is because it's the only Down's syndrome test, flaws and all, that presents no risk to the baby or to the mother.

Basically, triple test is able to subdivide babies into 2 groups. The first group - about 5% of the population, I think - contains 60% of all the Down's syndrome cases. About 1% of the women in that small group carry babies afflicted with Down's syndrome. The second group - 95% of the population - contains the other 40% of Down's syndrome babies.

So you (or anyone) can have a Down's syndrome baby even if the triple screen comes back with a low likelyhood for problems, it's just very unlikely. Since detecting Down's syndrome without amnio is so difficult, you take the worst possible predictive result you have (in your case, the ultrasound) and run with it.

There are 2 other methods - CVS (you are too late for that) and amniosynthesis. Amnio carries a 1:200 miscarriage penalty, 1:1000 if done at by an experienced doctor a special facility (hint: do amnio in a special facility). Dr. Braun indicated that you have a 1-3:100 chance of having a Down's syndrome baby. If that's too high for you, then you can get amniosynthesis. If you can live with the risk, don't get amniosynthesis.

OK, this may be more info than you need,

--
Katya (not a doctor, just a biochemist)

At Wed, 5 Mar 2003, R. Daniel Braun, MD wrote:
>
>There is no such thing as a "Normal" Triple screen.  It is reported as a
>"1 in so many" chance of the baby having Down syndrome.  for example 1
>in 10 or 1 in 5000 or anywhere along the way.  It just says there is a
>low risk or a high risk of it.  It never says the baby has it and it
>never says the baby doesn't have it.
>
>An echogenic cardiac focus(If I remember correctly) means somewhere in
>the 1-3 % range for the baby having it, regardless of what the Triple
>screen shows.
>
>--

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