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3cm dilated and 50% effaced - what are chances labor will start soon?

From: jane (anonymous@obgyn.net)
Wed, 27 Feb 2002 18:36:41 -0600 (CST)


I'm almost 39 weeks pregnant with my 2nd. At my last appt three days ago, my doctor said I was about 3cm dilated and 50% effaced and baby was at -1. At my previous appt, just 4 days before my last appt, I was only 1-2 cm dilated, 40% effaced and baby was at -2. Contractions are becoming more and more uncomfortable, although they're still irregular so I'm not timing them. For the past few days I've had bloody show, but that could be from getting my membranes stripped at my last appt, although the blood is definitely pink, not brown.

With my first pregnancy, I was dilated to 2cm and 75% effaced for two weeks before I finally had to be induced and dd was born 5 days late (even after getting my membranes stripped twice).

What are the chances that I could be dilated to 3cm (or more!) for weeks without going into labor, like my first pregnancy? Is it different for subsequent pregnancies? I know it's impossible to predict, but I'm wondering if there are any statistical differences for being 3cm dilated with a 2nd (or 3rd) pregnancy, just like they say the baby usually won't "drop" until labor starts for a 2nd or 3rd pregnancy although it can happen weeks in advance with the first.

TIA!




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