Re: OB: progesterone

From: Peter Wein (p.wein@obsgyn-mercy.unimelb.EDU.AU)
Sun Jun 28 00:08:12 1998


At 09:54 AM 27/06/98 -0500, you wrote:

>The summary you sent mentions possible benefits in terms of avoiding
>preterm birth - requiring multiple injections. The discussion was about
>the use of prog in first trimester use to prevent miscarriage.
>
>Even in this review the beneficial effects show 95% CI for OR which
>either reach unity (1.0) or almost do (0.95). In the context that there
>are multiple endpoints to address in such studies, many would argue that
>a greater degtree of statistical significance is required. (Test 20
>hypoteses on one dataset and it is likely that 5% [ie, one] will reach
>stat sign at the 5% level).
>
>I recall at least two metanalyses addressing prog for rec miscarriage
>about three years ago. Both showed no benefit *against recurrent
>misscarriage*!
>Malcolm Griffiths MD,MRCOG,MFFP,Cert.Mgmnt
>Obstetrician & Gynaecologist Luton & Dunstable Hosp.,UK.
>Tel: 01582-497459 (office) Fax: 01582-497376
> 01525-222849 (home) email: Malcolm@mgriff22.demon.co.uk
>http://www.obgyn.net/board/griffith.htm
>"CLINICAL FREEDOM IS THE LAST REFUGE OF THE CLINICALLY INCOMPETENT!"
>(Someone [1997])
>

Malcolm - your words were "There is no proven benefit of prog supplementation at all outside of assisted conception. Any use otherwise is at best placebo and at worst quack!" - you didn't;mention anything about recurrent miscarriage - nor was this the topic of the original post. I would submit that there is some proven benefit of prog supplementation - be it in avoiding preterm births and requiring multiple injections and all - and just looking at 95% confidence interval is being blinded by statistics - all they mean is that we are 95% sure that the true OR lies within the stated range - but if there is a benefit - do we have to be that sure - in the civil courts all we have to be is more than 50% sure!

--
Peter Wein
Senior Lecturer
Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology
University of Melbourne, Mercy Hospital for Women
Clarendon Street, East Melbourne 3002
Australia
Tel: +61 3 9270 2556 Fax: +61 3 9417 5406 Mobile: 0414 691690




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